I have been holding onto Dianne Wiest since August, but as TRUE GRIT finally landed in theaters same week as RABBIT HOLE, it became all to clear that I needed to let go the veteran two time winner Dianne Wiest and and make room for young Hailee Steinfeld. TRUE GRIT doesn't have more depth or nuance than RABBIT HOLE or Coen Bros past achievements, it plays more to the middle, but it's old fashioned story telling will appeal to the older Academy voters. Wise, adult mouthed youngsters have a real soft spot in the hearts of voters (Tatum O'Neal, Anna Paquin, Quinn Cummings) in the past. She'll beat out another young strong contender Mila Kunis as well I believe. Jacki Weaver is going to be the only true blue Indie nominee this year - well deserved. Amy Adams has a real chance for an upset this year. Every couple of years there's a surprise winner, (Tilda Swinton, Marcia Gay Harden, Juliette Binoche) in this category. She's been nominated three times in the last five years in the supporting category. Some voters may feel she's due - overdue. The favorite here is Melissa Leo, also in THE FIGHTER, in the much showery role. Big character, big hair, big smoker, big mouth, but still detailed, true and authentic. Helena Bonhem Carter will ride the THE KING's SPEECH tidal wave of love. She's always fantastic and sharp in every role. There's always room for Mrs. Burton but it'll have to be next time. Long list of great supporting women this year...
Winner: Melissa Leo
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